Words Have Meaning

8 Trends that Were Forecasted

As we look back on Church development in 2023 there were eight (8) trends that were forecasted based upon research from Barna Research and Carey Nieuwhof. Barna Research has been active for their entire history as a research group in tracking the patterns of church growth strategy and attendee’s mindset. Nieuwhof has a track record of offering forecasts dating back as far as 2016.

It must be stated that 2020 was a very disruptive year in religious practice. What we seem to be missing is that 2020 has not necessarily caused the disruptive practices in church today (Ie. Church attendance), it has however, revealed and accelerated what was already becoming true. This truth is hard to see when the measurement of success has been brick and mortar along with social-gospel agendas. We see ourselves as successful because of dollars in the plate and people in the seats. The disruptive chaos may have subsided a bit in 2023. This is a great time to address the underlying crisis that has been happening in the church for decades. The decline of church!.

The Boomer Church Will Decline and Eventually Disappear

At the start of 2023 the oldest Boomer turned 77 and the youngest will celebrate their 59th birthdays. Born between 1946 and 1964, Boomers have been the center of the megachurch movement. The aging Boomers is and will continue to impact church trends in a big way. Since 2020, 16% of Boomers have quite attending church. Boomers simply do not track with church if they are not in the building. Millennials and Gen-X are quite comfortable with the hybrid church. This trend that was forecasted early in 2023 will impact the church in three (3) ways: Attendance, Volunteering, and Giving. These three impacts should be seen as natural for an aging generation. Since there are fewer Boomers that are leaving portions of estate wealth to the church, will this stretch financial operations while attempting to lead a church building with fewer and fewer people?

Reflection

How has this 2023 trend impacted your church? What trends are you beginning to see in Attendance, Volunteering, and Giving? How can we move the “Brick and Mortar/Social Gospel” strategy to more of a “Great Commission” strategy of making Disciples (Life on Life Relationships)?